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Research and IPM

Interactive Tools and Models: Citrus Thrips Scarring Prediction Model—Testing Phase*
San Joaquin Valley, California

This model, validated so far only in Tulare County, California, is a first step in developing a reliable prediction of citrus thrips damage with advance warning. It estimates the degree of first scarring of Navel oranges by citrus thrips, Scirtothrips citri, from weather data that accumulates prior to petal fall.

*Validation of this model has been limited, and you are encouraged to test the model to see if it is helpful to you under your field conditions. You can also help us to test and improve the model. Disclaimer: The University of California and the authors of this model do not assume any responsibility and cannot be held liable for any loss that may result from using predictions from this model.

Estimates for active stations in counties:
| Fresno | Kern |  Madera | Tulare |
Choose year
Or use your own weather data  

Predictions are based on actual weather data. When a prediction is available for a station (usually between March 17 and the end of April), it is posted here.

County Active Weather Stations 2022
Estimated damage
Days with estimated temperatures
Fresno Coalinga, CIMIS #205 25.5% 13 of 79 days
Del_Rey/Fowler-01.P, DELF 42.5% 0 of 85 days
EASTON-01.P, EAS 43.7% 0 of 74 days
Firebaugh/Telles, CIMIS #7 25.6% 10 of 89 days
Five Points/WSFS USDA, CIMIS #2 36.0% 13 of 82 days
Fresno State, CIMIS #80 37.9% 0 of 83 days
KINGSBURG-01.P, KNG 35.9% 0 of 82 days
Kearney_Ag_Ctr-01.P, KAC 27.0% 0 of 83 days
Orange Cove, CIMIS #142 34.3% 1 of 82 days
Panoche, CIMIS #124 32.8% 11 of 82 days
Parlier, CIMIS #39 32.6% 1 of 83 days
SAND_RANCH-01.P, SR1 35.4% 0 of 80 days
Westlands, CIMIS #105 33.7% 34 of 87 days
Kern Arvin-Edison, CIMIS #125 35.1% 0 of 81 days
Belridge, CIMIS #146 48.2% 0 of 78 days
Shafter/USDA, CIMIS #5 38.3% 0 of 72 days
Madera FIREBAUGH/ALISO-01.P, FRBA 45.0% 0 of 86 days
Tulare Delano, CIMIS #182 28.4% 4 of 83 days
Lindcove, LNC 47.9% 0 of 74 days
Porterville, CIMIS #169 46.2% 0 of 83 days

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